Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
